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Tag: C2ER Annual Conference

  • Federal Partners Panel: An Update from Agency Leaders

    Dr. Mary Bohman, Acting Director and Deputy Director of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Dr. William Beach, Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and Dr. Ron Jarmin, Acting Director of the U.S. Census Bureau, gathered at the 61st Annual C2ER Conference and LMI Institute Forum’s Federal Partners Panel event to discuss the current work of their respective agencies, new innovations in data collection and dissemination, and the future of work and data-driven economic and workforce development.

    Dr. Bohman, Dr. Beach, and Dr. Jarmin recognize the need for granular and timely data. Dr. Bohman stated that BEA is prioritizing the expansion of state and local data, high-quality statistics and data, and meeting user needs by providing disaggregated data, and additional product, geographic, and industry data. BEA is also phasing out data collection by mail and instead focusing on text and email survey response data collection methods, as well as purchasing data from private companies.

    Dr. Jarmin, with the U.S. Census Bureau, also spoke to a need for innovative data collection methods. “I think all three agencies (U.S. Census Bureau, BEA, and BLS) are involved in new ways to look at new sources of data… [including] additional administrative data and private data sources,” said Dr. Jarmin. Other priorities at the U.S. Census Bureau include adding new content relating to changes in labor market and productivity and creating products that meet the needs of non-traditional data users.

    “I hope everyone knows the future of our work is more granular, more frequent, and [involving the use of] new data sources,” Dr. Beach stated during the event. To that end, BLS, according to Dr. Beach, is focusing on new and innovative data collection methods, such as utilizing Unemployment Insurance (UI) data from states. Dr. Beach speculated there would likely be UI reform efforts at the state policy level or in Congress and perhaps some future opportunities for utilizing UI data in a collaborative effort between BLS and state government agencies.

    Changes in Data Products by U.S. Census, BLS, and BEA

    Pulse Surveys by the U.S. Census Bureau might not be a permanent product, says Dr. Jarmin, as the data collection is burdensome to users. But while the Pulse Surveys may be impractical in the long term, Dr. Jarmin stated the U.S. Census Bureau is committed to quickly designing and implementing novel and helpful surveys during times of emergency—as the agency did with the Pulse Surveys during the COVID-19 crisis. In other news, the U.S. Census Bureau will also begin collecting data on state marijuana tax revenue collected by states where marijuana is legalized.

    For BLS, new data product updates include the release of monthly data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), where users can find experimental estimates for all 50 states and the District of Columbia for the total nonfarm level job openings, hires, and separations. The first round of JOLTS monthly data was released in June of 2021. And finally, Dr. Bohman announced that BEA, for the first time, will release official statistics of real personal consumption expenditures beginning on December 14, 2021.

    Overall, leadership from the U.S. Census Bureau, BLS, and BEA emphasized their commitment to finding innovative data collection and infrastructure methods to provide fast, specific, and disaggregated data to assist local and state applied workforce and economic development researchers.

  • Assessing the Economic Damage of COVID-19

    This is a series of keynote summaries from the virtual 60th Annual C2ER Conference and LMI Institute Forum held June 1 – 5, 2020.

    It will take a long time for people to feel comfortable consuming and for businesses to return to normal operations. While the recession was the shortest in history, the effects will last for years to come.  

    This was Dr. Mark Zandi’s message at the C2ER/LMI Institute (Virtual) Annual Conference Economic Outlook Keynote, Assessing the Economic Damage. The chief economist at Moody’s Analytics spoke on COVID-19 and the global recovery on Wednesday, June 3. 

    While Dr. Zandi reported that the recession due to the March 2020 COVID-19 response was over, this shortest recession in history, (March, April, and May) was one of the most severe. Since a recession is categorized as a fall in GDP in two successive quarters (in other words, a period of economic decline) May will be the first month of economic recovery – GDP has started to rebound due to the reopening of businesses in previously locked down counties. (Two days later, on Friday, June 5, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 2.5 million jobs were added in May and an unemployment rate of 13.3%, down from 14.7% in April.)  

    Still, federal funding (Paycheck Protection Program, stimulus checks, state aid, and increases to unemployment insurance) may not be enough to help states out of the downturn. Absent additional federal assistance, there will be a shortfall of about $500 billion in state and local government budgets at the beginning of September, assuming that all state and local rainy-day funds are exhausted, and the federal government continues to pay for the health care costs associated with fighting COVID-19. (Through the CARES Act, $100 billion was already allocated to health care providers who will test, diagnose, and provide care for COVID-19, including Medicare, Medicaid, and non-profit providers.)  

    Given the lack of knowledge about the virus and the lack of predictability, consumers are not spending, and businesses are struggling due to decreased demand. The most affected sectors are struggling with business-to-business payments: hotels, movie theaters, performing arts, restaurants, museums, clothing stores, and transportation industries are paying increasingly late. While the residential housing market has held up well, commercial real estate prices will fall 20-25%, mainly due to an overvalued market, lack of governmental support, and an expectation of decreased demand for office space as the employers begin to implement remote working policies. 

    While the economy would have been much worse without intervention, Dr. Zandi predicts a “dark side” to the debt that the US and other countries around the world are accumulating, potentially leading to a global fiscal crisis in a few years and diminished economic growth.  

    To learn more or revisit the presentation, a recording of the session is available to conference attendees through the Whova platform.

  • The Urgency for Real Time Data

    This is a series of keynote summaries from the virtual 60th Annual C2ER Conference and LMI Institute Forum held June 1 – 5, 2020.

    The C2ER/LMI Institute (Virtual) Annual Conference ran its second live session of the week on The Urgency for Real Time Data (Tuesday, June 2). More real time labor market and workforce information can inform both the COVID response and recovery, addressing reopening and retraining policies. Traditional data sources are often published with a time lag, and new sources of data are needed to understand the rapid change and to move forward with more timely and accurate projection of trends.

    Josh Wright, director of economic and workforce development at Emsi, shared examples of real-time data uses: eIMPACT’s study of real-time changes of seated diners to show the impact of the pandemic on restaurants and total daily traveler throughput by the Transportation Security Administration to show changes in travel as the result of global lockdowns, and Emsi’s Skills Match data application, which displays skills that are available (from their inventory of professional profiles) and skills that are in demand (from job postings) for sub-state regions. sourced from job postings and professional profiles, is added to company-level data and put into a regional context to match jobseekers with opportunities. This real-time data allows for jobseekers to be more purposeful in their reemployment strategies, and for employers to connect with those who have the skills that they are looking for.

    Cameron Macht, acting assistant director of the Labor Market Office of the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED), highlighted the ways that real-time data was being used in Minnesota. While DEED typically tracks monthly unemployment claims, the dramatic spike in US unemployment (14.7% in April 2020) called for new county-level daily and weekly unemployment insurance statistics. The information includes demographic details, such as age, education, gender, veteran status, and race and ethnicity to better understand who is being affected by the pandemic. DEED supplies a list of occupations in demand, with median wage, education requirements, and on-the-job training requirements, during the pandemic to help jobseekers. This real-time data allows for Minnesota policy makers to see where COVID-19 has hit the hardest and what areas need to be targeted for economic stimulus and recovery efforts.

    Program manager at the National Association of State Workforce Agencies (NASWA), Emma Northcott shared about the National Labor Exchange (NLx).  In collaboration with the National Science Foundation, NLx created the NLx Research Hub, a national open ecosystem of real-time jobseekers and employers. Through categorization of job postings, matching resumes based on skills and credentials, building tools to inform job seekers about training programs for local in-demand jobs, the Research Hub provides insights into the economy and labor market representation. By using real-time data, NLx can begin help employers more quickly locate talent, bring the right data to state workforce agencies to plan for recessions, and assist local communities who are suffering as a result of the pandemic.

    As administrative resources, web-scraping, and data visualization tools make for an increased ability to deliver high-quality and real-time data, customers will benefit from new insights. The presenters agreed that the movement toward real-time data could help people make smart decisions, identify trends, and in a time of a global pandemic, be an important component of policies and economic recovery.

    To learn more or revisit the panel, a recording of the session is available to conference attendees through the Whova platform.

  • Federal Partners Panel: An Update from Agency Leaders

    This is a series of keynote summaries from the virtual 60th Annual C2ER Conference and LMI Institute Forum held June 1 – 5, 2020.

    New data on job openings and labor turnover at the metro level could result if BLS gets its proposed funding increase, said Commissioner William Beach of the Bureau of Labor Statistics at the first virtual C2ER/LMI Institute Annual Conference on June 5. Speaking on a panel with Dr. Mary Bohman, Acting Director of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and Dr. Ron Jarmin, Deputy Director of the U.S. Census Bureau, Dr. Beach noted that BLS has released some experimental data from JOLTS at the state level and hopes to expand its sample to provide more granular data. The three agency directors discussed: 1) their current budget situation, 2) COVID-19 impacts their agencies, 3) data quality concerns, and 4) agency product and process innovations with Dr. Michael Horrigan, CEO of the Upjohn Institute, who moderated the discussion.

    Current Budget Situation in Federal Economic Statistical Agencies

    All three statistical agencies expressed satisfaction with their proposed 2021 budgets and an appreciation for modest funding increases in 2020. Dr. Jarmin explained that the Census Bureau secured the budget for this fiscal year and flexibility to use the supplemental funding provided for the decennial Census, but the agency had to re-plan the 2020 Census field operations due to the pandemic. That has pushed back all field activities and delayed decennial data collection operations continue much later into the fall than initially planned. Contingency funds available will help for data collection and enumeration, but there are proposals in Congress to provide supplemental funding to address the delays and the need to equip field staff with personal protective equipment.

    Dr. William Beach noted that BLS received a $655 million appropriation and was not included in the CARES Act or other COVID-related stimulus bills. That appropriation includes partial funding for a planned move to Suitland, Maryland, in 2022 where BLS will be co-located with Census and BEA.  Still, with the proposed increase in FY2021 appropriations ($658.3 million for BLS), the agency plans to fund the remainder of the expected move costs and supplement its data collection efforts. In the President’s budget request, $7.1 million is associated with expanding the Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) by increasing the sample size to produce sample-based estimates for every state with more detailed questions. Dr. Beach expects BLS to produce a JOLTS survey and employment situation survey in the same month as the reference period, which eventually will produce near real-time supply-side and demand-side information about the dynamics of the labor market.

    Dr. Beach announced new JOLTS production for the 18 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) – which covers about 40% of all U.S. employees – in Summer 2020. By more than doubling the sample size, BLS is likely to expand the estimates to include the top 50 MSAs as well with the agency’s sample-based approach.

    Dr. Mary Bohman, Acting Director, highlighted two new activities at the BEA from the FY2020: 1) production of GDP statistics for Puerto Rico, and 2) establishment of Federal Data Service (in cooperation with Census) to make more data available to researchers. She expects that BEA can publish GDP at the national/state and industry levels simultaneously from the third quarter of 2020, vastly improving the timeliness of state GDP data releases. BEA also plans to continue publishing county-level GDP, including at least 20 industry-level details. The budget for FY2021 continues to support GDP, data service, and evidence-based policymaking.

    How did COVID-19 Impact Federal Statistical Agencies?

    The COVID-19 pandemic impacted the federal statistical agencies dramatically in terms of field operations and data collection activities. All three agencies have moved to a 100% telework environment during the pandemic while adjusting their means of data collection. Dr. Beach explained how BLS moved its price index-side of data collection from in-store collection to non-human contact methods, including video links and emails. Although the response rate is lower, BLS did not suppress any details. The household survey for the Current Population Survey is under similar conditions. BLS stopped all personal contacts, and the response rate was about mid-60%. He also explained how BLS initiated a weekly conversation with the labor market information (LMI) shops in key states to stay abreast of data collection and quality challenges.

    For the Census Bureau, moving to 100% telework specifically took a toll on the 2020 Census, closing about 250 area Census offices. Dr. Jarmin noted that the Census Bureau stopped household visits and pushed non-response follow-ups to August, a significant delay that will impact the timing of delivering the final Decennial 2020 product. While relying on self-response, the Bureau looked for a different way to reach out to respondents using social media or emails. Although the response rate was a bit down for business & household surveys, the Census Bureau has been able to push data out to users by enhancing existing statistics. Business Formation Statistics, for example, used to be a quarterly product, but the Census started to release it weekly using administrative (business application) data. Another example is the launch of the Small Business Pulse Survey and Household Pulse Survey, both measuring the impact of the pandemic on the ground.

    Dr. Bohman shed light on the daily operation and cooperation with other organizations during the pandemic. 2020 is a benchmark year for GDP data, which comes from a BEA-run survey for multinational companies. As a huge consumer of the federal government’s data product, BEA spends a considerable amount of time working with other organizations and sharing data adjustments and methods. Understanding the change in the source data and documenting the impact of COVID-19 on their statistical product became the main tasks. This was made possible via weekly calls among economic agencies, including Federal Reserves, BLS, Census, and OMB Interagency Council on Statistical Policy and in-depth discussion for specific topics (e.g., Joint BEA-BLS product account).

    How does Your Organization Maintain Data Quality?  

    As the nation experiences remarkable changes in economic activity, concerns for data quality has risen. Dr. Bohman explained how they tried to overcome the challenges that BEA faces, emphasizing three points. First, transparency is a big part of the story. Publishing comprehensive technical notes, documentation, and FAQs for any changes helps BEA’s data transparency. For example, BEA identified and published how the federal pandemic response program impacted the National Income and Product Account. Second, good source data is key. With ongoing discussion with BLS and Census, BEA incorporated other federal statistical agencies’ thinking into their estimates. Third, long-term investment is essential. BEA also has capitalized on big data from the private sector (e.g., monthly credit card data published from private vendors). With this investment, the agency published a working paper for consumer spending identifying the consumption patterns during the pandemic.

    Dr. Beach brought up measurement issues at the outset, taking the period of mid-March to the end of March as an example. Since BLS does not know precisely how many workers dropped out of the system during those two weeks, it affects the calculation of labor productivity estimates. Labor productivity is calculated by dividing the total amount of output, which BEA publishes, with the number of hours that worked. However, BLS took an innovative approach using “continuing unemployment insurance (UI) claims datasets” – maintained by Employment and Training Administration at the Department of Labor – and calibrated the change in hours worked for a different industry.

    Dr. Jarmin emphasized the importance of source data improvement as well as core measurement capability. While agreeing with Dr. Bohman on the importance of long-term investment and alternative data sources, he also pointed out that federal statistical agencies need to stay apolitical. However, the private sector indeed possesses vast data that is useful, such as JP Morgan & Chase’s small business data dashboard. Federal statistical agencies’ responsibility is to triangulate different data sources and enhance their core measurement capability.

    Any other innovation at your organization? 

    BLS is commissioning two subject-matter expert panels on 1) retail trade and 2) Consumer Price Index (CPI). The price index last received such a review in 2002. BLS is also trying to modernize the Consumer Expenditure Survey, which provides sampling frames for the CPI, with the elimination of the paper diary form and moving toward online or app-based data collection to build more electronic data. Additionally, BLS is about to roll out a contingent workforce survey every two years, as opposed to every ten years now, after receiving a report from the Committee on National Statistics (CN Stat) at the National Academies of Sciences Engineering Medicine.

    BEA has several new data products, including publication of county-level GDP, prototype outdoor recreation statistics at state-level, statistics measuring the ocean economy in partnership with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and prototype statistics on personal income distribution. While the Census Bureau provides detailed demographics around income distribution, BEA’s new product reveals how American households share national growth tied to the national account. At the end of this year, BEA’s personal income distribution will be published at the state level by adding the period of 2016-2018.

    The annual Federal Partners offered valuable insight from agency leaders and provided exclusive insights on agency and data updates, particularly during a time when researchers are eager for new and real-time data.

    To learn more or watch the full discussion, a recording is available to C2ER and LMI Institute Members and Conference attendees through the Whova platform.